
Behind the scenes
Poll shows majority of Europeans want to boycott US products
by Tobias Billeter
Punitive tariffs on products from Asia, civil war-like conditions in the US and possible market shifts are impacting trade relations across the globe. Having analysed the situation from an online retail perspective, Galaxus’s executive team is assessing the emerging risks and potential opportunities for the company’s home markets in Switzerland and Germany.
For now, Galaxus co-founder and CIO Oliver Herren is more concerned with the general situation in the US than with tariffs: «From a solely economic standpoint, I’m less worried about the punitive tariffs than the civil war-like images coming out of the US. A prolonged state of emergency could rock global financial markets, affecting the EU and Switzerland too. This never-ending series of escalations feels like playing with fire.»
By contrast, he points out that Switzerland is in a good position: «As a politically and economically stable country, Switzerland benefits from the current situation. As long as the escalation doesn’t come to a head, anyway. Germany, on the other hand, with its ailing infrastructure and political uncertainty, looks much more vulnerable. The automotive sector in particular, which is one of the country’s major industries, is facing growing pressure from China.»
Robert Brohl, International Head of Supply Chain Management at Galaxus, is taking a particular interest in Germany right now: «If you take a bird’s eye view of what’s going on, Germany and the EU are certainly in a more economically challenging position than Switzerland. The zero-per-cent growth level they’re experiencing is already taking its toll on purchasing power.» Brohl adds that government investment programmes will be slow to take effect: «Potential boosters for growth, such as the federal government’s special funds, will end up in other sectors, such as defence or infrastructure first. After that, the impact on consumption will be indirect at best. For instance, if low-wage workers end up with more money in their pockets as a result.»
At the same time, he points to the psychological impact of the debate: «Trump’s tariffs are more likely to be putting pressure on our existing industries, such as the automotive sector. Horror stories about possible layoffs aren’t exactly encouraging people to rush out and buy things.» However, it remains to be seen whether this uncertainty will be reflected in consumer behaviour.
Luise Dalhoff, Category Leader at Galaxus, whose remit includes fashion in Switzerland and the EU, sees risks as well as potential changes in the competitive landscape: «We could certainly become a more appealing sales market for brands who have opportunities in the US taken away from them.» She’s already clocked the first signs of strategic changes in the market: «We’re currently seeing US-based online retailers increase their efforts in the German market, for example in the low-price segment.»
On the other hand, she points out the potential challenges posed by oversupply to the European market: «Retailers in Asia might start selling even higher numbers of low-priced goods that were originally earmarked for the US in Europe. That could potentially affect online retailers like Galaxus, although our range is completely different and focused on quality.» Oliver Herren sums up his overall take: «With the current global situation as volatile as it is, and with prevailing conditions changing fast, it’s difficult to make forecasts. That being said, the risks to the economy and trade in Switzerland and the EU seem very real.»
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