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World Population Day: humanity growing despite falling birth rate

11.7.2023

Translation: Elicia Payne

Never before have so many people lived on earth as today. However, education, equal opportunities and better health care are slowing population growth. Although most people already live in countries with low birth rates, the world population continues to grow for the time being.

In November 2022, the 8 billion mark was cracked. And the number of people in the world continues to rise even now. It has doubled since 1974, when it passed the 4 billion mark. The rapidly growing world population is a new phenomenon in terms of human history. Only since the middle of the 18th century, when there were more than a billion people in the world for the first time, has the number been rising faster and faster. But for how much longer?

More and more countries are below the replacement rate

Currently, on average, every woman worldwide has 2.3 children. By comparison, in the early 1960s this figure was still 5 children per woman. Since then the figure has been continuously falling. At a value below 2.1, the replacement rate (the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next) is reached. This means that if, on average, each woman has fewer than 2.1 children, the population as a whole will decrease. In 1957, Serbia became the first country with a birth rate below the replacement rate. In Denmark and Finland, the value was reached in 1969. And more and more countries are following suit: the USA in 1972, China with the introduction of the one-child policy in 1991, Brazil in 2003 and, more recently, India in 2020, now the world’s most populous country. In Europe, the birth rate has recently been far below the conservation level at less than 1.5 children per woman.

As of World Population Day on 11 July 2023, more people (68 per cent of the world’s population) are now already living in countries with a birth rate below 2.1, i.e., below the replacement rate. And yet the number of people in the world continues to rise even now. The reason for this: demographic passivity. Due to the young age structure, the low birth rates only have a delayed effect. In addition to other uncertainties, this makes it difficult to accurately predict future population trends.

Will we reach the highest population level and turning point as early as 2040?

A forecast by the United Nations concludes that the world’s population could peak at 8.5 billion as early as 2040. If so, the number of people on Earth could shrink to 6 billion by the end of the century. However, the Earth4All initiative assumes there will be a sharp increase in investment in education, economic development and health to achieve this.

A second scenario predicts a later point in time around 2080 for the global population maximum, according to which around 10.4 billion people would be living on Earth at that time.

Education, health and prosperity cause birth rates to fall

A decisive factor for the number of births is women’s autonomy. According to a recent UN report on the state of the world’s population, 24 per cent of women and girls worldwide have no way of saying «no» to sex. In many countries, females still have little say in family planning. Eleven per cent of women can’t make autonomous decisions about contraception. And access to contraceptives is also impossible for many simply because of the cost. The educational level of women is considered to be a decisive factor in the decline in the birth rate. Better education in the female population increases equality of opportunity and thus the possibility of an autonomous life. If women have access to education and better health care, birth rates automatically fall.

Header image: Mauro Mora/Unsplash

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Anna Sandner

Senior Editor

Anna.Sandner@galaxus.de

Science editor and biologist. I love animals and am fascinated by plants, their abilities and everything you can do with them. That's why my favourite place is always outside - somewhere in nature, preferably in my wild garden.

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